The Reserve Bank today projected retail inflation to be around 5 percent for the current fiscal, saying that the 7th Pay Commission burden could put an upward pressure of up to 1.50 percent over two years. "Going forward, CPI inflation is expected to decelerate modestly and remain around 5 percent during 2016-17 with small inter-quarter variations," RBI said in its first bi- monthly monetary policy statement for 2016-17. RBI said there are uncertainties surrounding this inflation path emanating from recent unseasonal rains, the likely spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon, the low reservoir levels by historical averages, and the strength of the recent upturn in commodity prices, especially oil.
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